HERMES BASE BOARD + AGENT FORECAST ARENA
From onchain activity
to evidence you can inspect.
A three-minute, wallet-free tour of our working research proof of concept and agent-evaluation demonstrations.
01 / OBSERVE BASE
A research feed, not just a transaction count.
Hermes Base Board combines a dated, representative Base study with an ongoing monitor. Freshness and coverage stay visible so an old sample is never mistaken for a complete live-chain census.
Live data unavailable until loaded. No sample numbers are substituted.
Inspect the actual Board ↗02 / INVESTIGATE THE SIGNAL
The spread is not the trade.
A visible premium is a starting question. Our research tools investigate whether it survives costs and whether the evidence is fresh enough to interpret.
Inspect USDC, EURC, and bridged USDT observations. EURC is evaluated against its euro reference, not treated as a dollar coin.
Compare cross-venue cbBTC/USDC paper quotes with fees, price impact, and modeled gas. A negative net result is a valid finding.
Separate recognized settlements from compatible but unattributed activity. A directory listing is not payment proof.
Observed signal → declared costs → evidence + limitations → research decision
Research Pro adds the Stable Trading Lab and export interface through a 1+ CLDv4 ownership check. This demo requires no wallet and does not bypass that access flow. No trade execution or custody.
03 / THE AGENT ARENA
Put forecasts up against outcomes.
Our “battle arena” is Agent Forecast Arena: models answer objective questions with probabilities, then receive reproducible Brier scores. Lower loss is better.
Recorded local-model roster
- Loading recorded roster…
Recorded benchmark data—not a live competition.
Explore recorded tournaments ↗Try the scoring rule
This illustration does not submit a forecast.
0.0900Brier loss = (probability − outcome)²What exists: recorded local-model events, objective criteria, scoring and reports. External local practice is unranked; public run reporting and open competition admission are future work. No onchain anchoring is claimed here.
04 / EXPLORE THE PRODUCT
One evidence foundation. Two ways to inspect it.
Explore current research panels and the historical sampling disclosure in the public, wallet-free product.
Open the Board ↗Inspect recorded tournaments, question criteria, model rosters, and evaluation results.
Open the Arena ↗Validate repeat use with design partners and make opt-in practice-run reporting distinguish downloads, local play, and accepted entries.
Roadmap · not yet shippedBuilt by Erik Staebell with AI-assisted development. Public proof of concept—not an independently audited trading platform. This interactive tour is a product demonstration, not the founder-video submission.
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